Most Asian currencies steadied on Friday after clocking sharp gains in the prior session, while the dollar nursed some losses after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as widely expected. Regional currencies recouped a bulk of their weekly losses after the Fed’s move, with some even turning positive for the week. The dollar, on the other hand, tumbled from four-month highs, with some traders also locking in recent gains. Focus was also on more cues on fiscal stimulus from China, as a meeting of the country’s National People’s Congress entered its final day.
The dollar index and dollar index futures both steadied in Asian trade, steadying from a sharp drop on Thursday after the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%. The greenback had shot up to a four-month high earlier in the week after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election, with Trump’s policies potentially heralding stickier inflation in the long term. The Fed said a change in U.S. leadership was unlikely to affect monetary policy in the near term. Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the economy was in a good place, and that the bank was likely to ease policy further in the coming months. Traders were seen pricing in a 76.5% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in December, and a 23.5% chance rates will remain unchanged, CME Fedwatch showed.
The Chinese yuan, which was among the worst hit by dollar strength this week, weakened slightly on Friday, with the USDCNY pair rising 0.2%. The pair was also set to rise 0.4% this week. Focus was squarely on the NPC meeting, which concludes on Friday, for more cues on Beijing’s plans to roll out fiscal stimulus. Analysts expect the government to approve at least 10 trillion yuan ($1.6 trillion) in fresh spending for the coming years. The NPC meeting comes after Beijing announced a slew of stimulus measures over the past month, but did not specify their timing or scale.
Broader Asian currencies mostly weakened on Friday, but were sitting on strong gains from the prior session following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. The Japanese yen was an outlier, with the USDJPY pair falling 0.2% and further away from three-month highs after Japanese ministers issued fresh verbal warnings over potential intervention in the currency market. The Australian dollar’s AUDUSD pair fell 0.4%, but was headed for a nearly 2% weekly gain. The South Korean won’s USDKRW pair rose 0.4%, while the Singapore dollar’s USDSGD pair rose 0.1%. The Indian rupee was a major laggard this week, with the USDINR pair surging to record highs above 84.4 rupees. The pair remained close to these highs on Friday.