A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese developer shares fell 3.3% on Thursday, extending losses from a mid-May high to almost 21%. Sunac China Holdings Ltd. was the biggest laggard with a slump of 12%, while CIFI Holdings Group Co. sank 8.4%.
Real estate stocks have retreated amid skepticism over a broad support package unveiled by the central government on May 17. While investors initially cheered the policies, which include lower down-payment requirements for homebuyers, they have since questioned how useful they will be in reviving demand and addressing a housing inventory glut.
There’s also the concern about the size of the measures. Officials have said that a central bank program would incentivize bank loans worth 500 billion yuan ($69 billion), but that’s a small fraction of the value of China’s vacant apartments.
”The latest sales data show there’s not much improvement in property fundamentals,” said Jeff Zhang, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. “We may need to wait until the end of year to see a narrowing of declines or a rise in monthly sales as a result of the government’s rescue package.”
New-home sales at the 100 biggest real estate companies dropped 33.6% from a year earlier in May, easing from a 45% decline in April, China Real Estate Information Corp. data showed. While the slight month-on-month pickup buoyed property shares earlier this week, worries over the long-term outlook later pushed investors to take profits.
“We only do short-term investment in Chinese property stocks as the industry’s fundamentals are still weak,” said Joy Young, the founder of Shenzhen Infinite Fund Management Co.
As some investors wait for a clearer sales-recovery picture, others are seeking clues on major policy shifts that may be unveiled at the Third Plenary Session in July.
Beijing will likely follow other cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen in relaxing housing curbs, according to John Lam, an analyst at UBS Group AG. Other possible measures may focus on destocking, he added.
Morningstar’s Zhang expects the Chinese government to be more active on property supports until July’s plenum, “but the room for policy adjustments may be smaller than before, as the May rescue package is already very forceful.”