On Thursday (June 5), gold prices rose to a two-week high of $2,378.36 per ounce during the session, and closed at $2,375.60 per ounce, up 0.8% for the day.
The U.S. Department of Labor announced on Thursday that the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending June 1 increased by 8,000, to 229,000 after seasonal adjustment, higher than the market expectation of 220,000. Data earlier this week showed that U.S. job vacancies fell more than expected in April, with the number of jobs available per job seeker reaching the lowest level since June 2021. U.S. private employment data on Wednesday also grew significantly below expectations. Frequent lower-than-expected data on U.S. employment has ignited hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year. At the same time, the eurozone central bank also cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday following the Bank of Canada's rate cut on Wednesday, which further ignited the Federal Reserve's expectations of following the European Central Bank's rate cut. If European and American central banks collectively join the rate cut camp, it will undoubtedly greatly reduce the cost of holding gold, and gold will benefit greatly from this. Next, the market's focus will turn to the non-farm payrolls data released on Friday. The US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report is expected to increase by 185,000 in May. However, this week's JOLTS job vacancies data was negative and the ADP employment change data was lower than expected, which undoubtedly reduced investors' optimism about the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report. If the non-farm payrolls data also show weakness, it may put pressure on the US dollar, further increase the expectation of the Fed's early rate cut, thereby greatly loosening the suppression of gold prices and giving gold the opportunity to continue to rise. However, it is also necessary to guard against the risk of selling pressure on gold brought by the black swan (abnormally strong) of non-farm data.
On the technical level, from the daily chart, gold has pulled out a big positive for two consecutive trading days. An almost bareheaded and barefoot positive column crossed the middle track of the Bollinger Band channel overnight. The upper resistance level of 2365 in the past two weeks has been crossed. The technical indicator MACD has formed a golden cross, indicating that gold bulls have begun to be enthusiastic. The key now is to see what the results of the US non-farm data will be on Friday. Once the data is weak, spot gold is expected to easily rush to $2,400 or even higher. If the data is strong on the contrary, the upward trend of gold will be suppressed. However, as long as the price does not fall below the two-week low support level of $2,313, it is unlikely that gold will turn weak.